CRE Maturity and Refinance Risk ← Agents Directory

CRE loan maturity monitoring that sizes every maturing loan as a refinance

MaturityWatch pulls every commercial real estate loan maturing in your window, rebuilds current NOI from the latest rent roll and operating statement, and sizes each one as a refinance at your rate, amortization, cap rate and coverage limits. The book comes back ranked by refinance gap, with extension options tested and every figure tied to its source page.

For banks, credit unions and debt funds with office, retail, multifamily, industrial and hospitality maturities ahead. Runs on your servicing data and borrower reporting; no system change required.

Size your maturing loans

$875B Commercial mortgages scheduled to mature in 2026, per the Mortgage Bankers Association

Your assumptions Refinance rate, amortization, cap rate and limits are set by your credit team

Gap ranked The maturing book ordered by shortfall, not by maturity date

Every figure NOI and proceeds link to the reporting page they came from

What is CRE loan maturity monitoring?

CRE loan maturity monitoring looks ahead at loans coming due and asks whether each one can refinance: at today’s rates and values, how much debt does the property support, and how far is that from the balance that has to be repaid? MaturityWatch answers that for every maturing loan, as an AI agent on the MightyBot platform, using your refinance assumptions as the rules.

A loan can be current and still fail at maturity

A loan written at a low rate and a tight cap rate can pay on time for five years and still not refinance. The payment history looks clean because the original terms are still in force. The problem only appears when the balance comes due and the property has to support new debt at current terms.

MaturityWatch runs that test early, on the whole book. It recomputes NOI from the latest reporting, sizes the refinance under each of your constraints, tests the extension conditions in the loan agreement, and shows which loans need a conversation now. Whether to extend, modify or require a paydown stays with your credit team.

Maturity review: $24.0M suburban office loan Illustrative example

Balance: $24.0M
Matures: In 11 months
Result: Gap $6.0M: refer to credit

Current NOI Flag

NOI of $2.08M on the June trailing twelve months, down 20% from $2.61M at origination. Two leases totaling 38,000 SF expire before maturity.
Operating statement Jun 30 p.1 · Rent roll p.2
Refinance DSCR Flag

1.06x on the $24.0M balance at a 7.25% refinance rate and 30-year amortization. Refinance policy minimum is 1.25x.
Refinance assumptions v3 · Credit policy 6.1
Supportable proceeds Flag

$18.0M, limited by 65% LTV on a $27.7M value at a 7.5% cap rate. Coverage supports $20.3M and a 9% debt yield $23.1M.
Refinance assumptions v3
Extension option Hard stop

One 12-month extension requires 1.30x DSCR and a 9.5% debt yield. Current 1.06x and 8.7% do not qualify.
Loan agreement 2.4(b)
Guarantor financials Missing

Guarantor PFS on file is 14 months old. Updated statement requested before the credit review.
Reporting schedule item 3

Fictional loan shown for illustration. Your refinance assumptions, policies and loan documents drive the real review.

How MaturityWatch works

01
The maturing book is pulled

MaturityWatch reads maturity dates, balances, rates, amortization and extension options from your servicing data and selects every loan inside the window you set, usually 6 to 24 months. Balances are carried forward to the maturity date, including scheduled amortization.
02
NOI is rebuilt from current reporting

The latest rent roll and operating statement for each property are extracted and normalized. Leases expiring before maturity are marked, occupancy and NOI are compared with origination, and stale or missing reporting is requested from the borrower.
03
Each loan is sized as a refinance

Supportable proceeds are computed under each constraint you set: DSCR at your refinance rate and amortization, debt yield, and LTV on a value at your cap rate. The tightest one binds, and the refinance gap is the balance at maturity minus those proceeds.
04
Extensions are tested and the book is ranked

Extension conditions in each loan agreement are tested against current figures. The book is ranked by gap, with concentration views by property type, market and quarter, and a package for each loan that needs a credit decision.

Maturity checks

How do you find the CRE loans at risk at maturity?

The checks below are the defaults. Your credit team sets the window, the refinance rate and amortization, cap rates by property type and market, and the coverage and leverage limits, and can change them as the market moves.

Input	What MaturityWatch checks	Output
Servicing data	Maturity date, balance at maturity after amortization, rate type, extension options and guarantees for every loan in the window	Maturity schedule by quarter
Latest rent roll and operating statement	NOI recomputed; occupancy and NOI against origination; leases expiring before maturity	Current NOI with source pages and rollover exposure
Your refinance assumptions	Proceeds supported by DSCR at the refinance rate and amortization, by debt yield, and by LTV at your cap rate	Supportable proceeds, the binding constraint and the refinance gap
Loan agreement extension provisions	Extension tests, notice periods, fees and required paydowns compared with current figures	Qualifies or does not qualify, with the clause
Sponsor and guarantor reporting	Age of financials on file; liquidity and other obligations as inputs to global debt service	Requests for updated statements before the credit review
The whole maturing book	Gaps ranked; concentrations by property type, market and maturity quarter	Watch list and outreach order for relationship managers

Maturity reports list dates. The risk is in the refinance.

Most maturity reports show when loans come due. They do not show which of those loans the property can refinance, because that takes a fresh sizing on current numbers, loan by loan.

Payment history hides the problem

A loan with a low original rate or an interest-only period can stay current right up to maturity. The shortfall only appears when the balance has to be refinanced at current terms.

Reporting is collected but not re-underwritten

The rent roll and operating statement arrive and are filed. Nobody resizes the loan until the renewal memo is due, which is when options are fewest.

Outreach starts too late

Extension conditions, paydowns and new equity take months to negotiate. A gap found 60 days before maturity leaves little room for anything but a short extension.

Why it is different

The maturing book, sized before it comes due

MaturityWatch does not replace your servicing system or your credit decisions. It resizes every maturing loan on current numbers so the conversations start early.

Capability	Maturity report from the servicing system	MaturityWatch
What it shows	Maturity dates and balances	Supportable proceeds and the refinance gap for each loan
NOI	Figure from origination or the last annual review	Recomputed from the latest rent roll and operating statement
Refinance terms	Not modeled	Your rate, amortization, cap rate and limits, applied to every loan
Extension options	Read when the borrower asks	Conditions tested against current figures in advance
Prioritization	Sorted by maturity date	Ranked by gap, with property type and market concentration
Audit record	Spreadsheets per renewal	Every figure tied to its source page and assumption version

Commercial real estate agents

Agents for the rest of the CRE loan life cycle

Deal screening and underwriting

Closing and loan boarding

Servicing and portfolio

CoverCheck CRE loan insurance compliance Tests every certificate against the loan agreement and requests renewals before coverage lapses.

How MaturityWatch connects to the MightyBot platform.

MaturityWatch runs on the MightyBot platform: plain-English credit policies, document extraction with page citations, and an audit trail for every decision.

Use caseCRE LendingRent rolls, operating statements and appraisals into DSCR, debt yield and LTV under your policy.Use caseConstruction Draw ReviewsDraw packet review, inspection reconciliation, lien waivers, and policy checks.Use caseCovenant MonitoringContinuous borrower reporting, covenant calculations, and breach detection.Use caseFinancial SpreadingNormalize borrower financials for underwriting, covenant monitoring, and risk evaluation.ControlPolicy EnginePlain-English policies compiled into deterministic execution paths.EvidenceData EngineDocument intelligence, canonical extraction, and source evidence pointers.

Size your next 24 months of maturities.

We are opening design partner slots for banks, credit unions and debt funds with CRE maturities ahead. Send a servicing extract and recent borrower reporting for a set of maturing loans; we return the ranked gap report and loan-level packages to compare with your own watch list.

Become a design partner View all agents

Why can a performing CRE loan fail at maturity?

The volume is large. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported in February 2026 that "Seventeen percent ($875 billion) of the $5.0 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors is scheduled to mature in 2026," and that "$396 billion (21 percent) of the outstanding balance of mortgages serviced by depositories" matures this year.

Because the test changes at maturity. While the loan is outstanding, the borrower pays on the original terms. At maturity, the property has to support a new loan at current rates and values. The OCC's Commercial Real Estate Lending handbook puts it plainly: "Even if borrowers are able to meet their payment obligations, they could find it difficult to refinance their balloon payment amount at maturity because of declines in property value."

Loan structure can make that worse. The handbook notes that interest-only terms and long amortization periods can lower the chance of a payment default, but "such terms can increase the loss given default and the balloon or full repayment risk at maturity if not properly mitigated." It adds that "A renewal, refinancing, or extension of a loan on an interest-only basis can indicate a troubled loan."

Payment status alone does not show the risk. The 2023 interagency Policy Statement on Prudent Commercial Real Estate Loan Accommodations and Workouts warns that being current can mislead when "the liberal use of extensions and renewals masks credit weaknesses and obscures a borrower's inability to meet reasonable repayment terms."

How does MaturityWatch size each maturing loan as a refinance?

MaturityWatch runs on the MightyBot platform. It reads your servicing data, selects every loan maturing inside the window you set, and carries each balance forward to its maturity date. Your refinance assumptions are written as plain-English policies: refinance rate and amortization, cap rates by property type and market, and your DSCR, debt yield and LTV limits.

For each loan it rebuilds NOI from the latest rent roll and operating statement, marks leases that expire before maturity, and computes the proceeds each constraint supports. The tightest constraint sets the supportable loan, and the refinance gap is the balance at maturity minus that amount. Extension conditions in the loan agreement are tested against the same current figures.

The handbook asks for this kind of sensitivity: "capitalization rates, interest rates, and DSCRs should be stress-tested to determine whether a property will likely remain viable during a period of economic stress." MaturityWatch can run the same book under more than one rate and cap rate case, and every figure keeps a link to its source page and the assumption version used.

What do the 2023 interagency workout principles expect from lenders with maturing loans?

The policy statement recognizes the situation directly: "When there has been deterioration in collateral values, a borrower with a maturing loan amid an economic downturn may have difficulty obtaining short-term financing or adequate sources of long-term credit, despite the borrower's demonstrated and continued ability to service the debt." It also says "renewals or restructurings of maturing loans to commercial borrowers who have the ability to repay on reasonable terms will not automatically be subject to adverse classification by examiners."

It sets out what a prudent workout plan rests on, including "Updated and comprehensive financial information on the borrower, real estate project, and all guarantors and sponsors" and "Current valuations of the collateral supporting the loan and the workout plan." Among the practices examiners evaluate is "Management information systems and internal controls to identify and track loan performance and risk, including impact on concentration risk and the allowance."

Timing matters as much as analysis. The statement notes that "Proactive engagement by the financial institution with the borrower often plays a key role in the success of the workout." A gap found a year ahead leaves room for a paydown, new equity or a structured extension; a gap found at the maturity date usually does not.

What to look for in CRE loan maturity monitoring software

Use these questions when you compare tools for tracking maturities and refinance risk across a CRE portfolio.

Does it resize loans, or only list dates?A maturity report that shows dates and balances is a calendar. Look for supportable proceeds and a refinance gap on every loan.
Is NOI current?The sizing should use the latest rent roll and operating statement, with leases expiring before maturity called out, not the figure from origination.
Are the refinance assumptions yours?Rate, amortization, cap rates by property type and market, and coverage and leverage limits should be set and versioned by your credit team.
Does it test extension options?Extension conditions in the loan agreement should be checked against current figures before the borrower asks.
Can you see the book by concentration?Gaps by property type, market and maturity quarter show where exposure clusters and where to start outreach.
Does every figure trace to a source?Credit committee and examiners will ask where NOI and value came from. Each number should open the reporting page and the assumption used.

Maturity reports, annual review spreadsheets and a policy-driven maturity monitor compared

Criterion	Servicing system maturity report	Annual review spreadsheets	MaturityWatch
What it answers	Which loans come due and when.	How one loan looks at its last review.	Which maturing loans can refinance, and by how much each falls short.
NOI	Not included.	Updated once a year, loan by loan.	Recomputed from the latest reporting for every maturing loan.
Refinance terms	Not modeled.	Varies by analyst.	Your rate, amortization, cap rate and limits on every loan.
Extension options	Dates only.	Read when the renewal is written.	Conditions tested in advance against current figures.
Portfolio view	Sorted by date.	None.	Ranked by gap, with property type, market and quarter concentrations.
Fits best when	Few maturities and stable values.	A small book reviewed by one team.	A large share of the book matures into higher rates or lower values.

Sources

Sources and verification

Regulatory references were read in the original documents and last verified September 23, 2026. Production figures come from the named MightyBot deployment.

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the CRE maturity wall?

The maturity wall is the volume of commercial real estate loans coming due over a short period, many of them written when rates were lower and values higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported in February 2026 that $875 billion, or 17 percent, of the $5.0 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages is scheduled to mature in 2026. Loans that were sized on those terms may not support the same balance when they refinance at current rates and cap rates. For a single lender, the question is which of its own maturities fall short and by how much, which is what MaturityWatch measures.

How do you identify CRE loans at risk at maturity?

Resize each maturing loan as a new refinance. Recompute NOI from current reporting, then calculate the proceeds the property supports at today’s refinance rate, amortization and cap rate under your DSCR, debt yield and LTV limits. Loans whose balance at maturity exceeds those proceeds are at risk, and the size of the gap sets the priority. MaturityWatch does this for every loan in your window.

What is a refinance gap on a commercial real estate loan?

The refinance gap is the loan balance due at maturity minus the largest new loan the property can support at current terms. A $24.0M balance on a property that supports $18.0M has a $6.0M gap, which has to be covered by a paydown, new equity, an extension or a modification. MaturityWatch reports the gap and the constraint that sets it.

How is refinance DSCR calculated?

Refinance DSCR divides current NOI by the annual debt service the maturing balance would carry on new terms: your refinance rate and amortization, not the original note rate. MaturityWatch calculates it for every maturing loan, alongside debt yield on the balance and LTV on a value at your cap rate.

How is MaturityWatch different from covenant monitoring?

Covenant monitoring tests a loan against its existing covenants on each reporting cycle while the loan is outstanding. MaturityWatch looks at the refinance event: whether the property can support a new loan of the same size at current terms when the existing one comes due, and whether any extension option can be met.

Does MaturityWatch decide whether to extend or modify a loan?

No. MaturityWatch sizes the refinance, tests the extension conditions in the loan agreement and prepares a package for each loan that needs a decision. Whether to extend, modify, require a paydown or pursue another path stays with your credit team and your policies.

What data does MaturityWatch need?

A servicing extract with maturity dates, balances, rates, amortization and extension options; the latest rent roll and operating statement for each property; sponsor and guarantor financials where you have them; and your refinance assumptions by property type and market. It works from the files and exports you already have.

How much commercial real estate debt is maturing in 2026?

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported in February 2026 that $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages, 17 percent of the $5.0 trillion outstanding, is scheduled to mature in 2026, down 9 percent from the $957 billion scheduled for 2025. It reported that $396 billion of the 2026 maturities is held by depositories, and that 30 percent of hotel and motel loan balances come due in 2026.

What does a design partner pilot include?

A read-only run on a set of your maturing loans under your refinance assumptions. You get the ranked gap report, loan-level packages with every figure tied to its source, and requests for any stale reporting, so you can compare the results with your current watch list before anything goes live.